BEFORE THE FALL
By Brigadier General (Ret.) Paul B. “Trey” Chauncey III
A National Security Warning and a Path to Renewal
America is not facing one crisis. It is facing several at the same time. Great powers rarely fall from a single blow. They fall when the pillars that hold them up erode together. That is the danger now. We are living in a moment when industrial strength, national identity, population readiness, and civic resilience are weakening in ways that reinforce one another. Naming these problems is not an act of surrender. It is an act of responsibility. A leader must look reality in the eye, acknowledge what has been lost, and chart a path to restore it. Renewal is still possible. But renewal requires discipline, clarity, and the willingness to confront uncomfortable truths about who we have become.
For decades the United States allowed its industrial base to hollow out. Trade deficits approaching one trillion dollars a year became politically acceptable. In 2022 the overall deficit reached roughly 948 billion dollars. The goods deficit was about 1.19 trillion. Manufacturing once made up more than a quarter of the American economy. Today it hovers around 10 to 12 percent. In 1950 roughly one in three Americans worked in manufacturing. Now it is less than one in ten. These numbers tell the story of a nation that slowly exchanged its capacity to produce for the convenience of importing. A country cannot fight a modern war when its supply chain begins inside another nation’s borders. During the Second World War the United States could convert automobile plants, refrigerator factories, and appliance lines into wartime production within months because the industrial foundation was already on American soil. Much of that foundation has since migrated overseas. China now produces more than half the world’s crude steel. The American share is only a few percentage points.
This decline was not accidental. Federal policy incentivized offshoring for decades. Corporations were rewarded for moving jobs, plants, and expertise overseas. The Trump administration was the first in many years to force a reversal. Strategic tariffs, national security authorities, and pressure on foreign producers revived domestic steel and aluminum production and jump-started semiconductor reshoring. These actions were debated at the time, but their effects were measurable. Idled mills restarted. Domestic producers expanded. Supply chains became less fragile. The 2017 tax reform further shifted the incentive structure by lowering the corporate tax rate and introducing the Global Intangible Low Tax Income mechanism, which made it more competitive to keep profits and production at home rather than sheltering them abroad. None of these reforms alone rebuilt the arsenal, but they proved that a deliberate national strategy can turn industrial decline.
Yet industrial weakness is only one piece of the threat. A nation’s strength is also measured in the readiness of its people. Today only 23 percent of young Americans are eligible to serve without a waiver. Only 9 percent express interest in serving at all. These are the lowest numbers in the modern era and would become a crisis in any major conflict. The recruiting shortfalls the services face are not temporary fluctuations. They reflect a deeper cultural shift away from service, sacrifice, and the expectation that defending the nation is a shared civic duty.
At the same time America is losing tens of thousands of working age adults to addiction every year. In 2022 nearly 108,000 Americans died from overdoses. The provisional numbers for 2023 remained above 100,000. Even after a decline in 2024 the toll remained near 80,000. Synthetic opioids like fentanyl now represent the single largest killer of Americans aged 18 to 49. Most precursors are produced in China, shipped to Mexico, and turned into finished product by cartels before crossing the border. This is not a conventional crime problem. It functions as a form of asymmetric attack on the stability of the United States. Addiction weakens the workforce, erodes military readiness, destabilizes families, and undermines long term national resilience.
Mental health trends deepen the vulnerability. Suicide is now one of the leading causes of death for younger Americans. Anxiety, depression, and social isolation have increased dramatically. Young people report record levels of loneliness despite living in the most digitally connected era in human history. A population struggling with physical fragility, chemical dependency, and psychological strain cannot sustain the demands of a national emergency. Strengthening the population is no longer a social preference. It is a national security requirement.
These challenges point to a deeper crisis. The country no longer shares a common understanding of itself. Mobilization requires belief, and belief requires identity. Today the United States lacks a shared story that binds its citizens together. Polling shows that large numbers of young adults cannot explain the Constitution, the separation of powers, federalism, or the basic structure of their own government. Civics has been diluted, neglected, or replaced with ideological narratives that tell students what to think rather than teaching them how their republic functions. A self governing nation cannot survive if its citizens do not understand the responsibilities that come with citizenship.
Trust in institutions has declined sharply. This is not a mystery. Many institutions spent years guarding their own interests through secrecy, political bias, and administrative insulation. Restoring trust will require transparency that is consistent, unapologetic, and nonpartisan. The Trump administration demonstrated that major federal programs can be opened to public audit and that declassification can occur at scale. These steps should be understood not as political maneuvers, but as democratic precedents. A free people must be able to scrutinize their government. Accountability strengthens institutions rather than weakening them.
These internal weaknesses directly erode American influence abroad. For decades the United States relied on the size of its consumer market to maintain global leverage. Nations tolerated American inconsistency because their economies depended on American demand. Over time we shifted from being the world’s leading producer to being its leading customer. That shift is now failing. Other economies are expanding. Global supply chains are reorganizing. The advantage of being the world’s largest consumer market no longer compensates for declining production. When the world no longer depends on American consumption, American influence shrinks.
Energy policy illustrates the transition. When the United States achieved genuine energy abundance, global leverage shifted decisively in our favor. Domestic production gave the country geopolitical flexibility that few nations possessed. When the United States moves between expansion and restriction, that leverage evaporates. Strategic autonomy requires reliable energy production at home. During the first Trump term the United States expanded domestic output and reestablished itself as the world’s leading energy producer. That momentum must be regained. Modern nuclear power, expanded natural gas capacity, advanced geothermal, and next generation energy technologies should be treated as national imperatives, not political weapons.
The country still has the capacity to reverse course. The question is whether it has the will. Policy alone will not save the nation. Federal action can set conditions, but it cannot restore character. A nation cannot endure if its people drift toward indulgence and distraction. Strength requires discipline. Citizenship requires responsibility. Freedom requires sacrifice. If Americans expect the next generation to stand firm in times of crisis, they must demand more of themselves in times of comfort. The habits that preserve a nation are rooted in self control, service, work, and commitment to something greater than personal ease. These virtues cannot be legislated into existence, but they can be rekindled. The country’s future depends on it.
Industrial renewal must begin with a long term strategy that treats domestic production as a foundation of national power. Strategic tariffs demonstrated what deliberate policy can achieve, but tariffs alone are not enough. The nation must modernize its energy grid, shorten permitting timelines, and rebuild supply chains that strengthen domestic resilience rather than foreign dependency. American manufacturing can expand only if the workforce is prepared to sustain it. Apprenticeships, technical training, and vocational programs should be prioritized alongside traditional academic pathways. Federal procurement should reward domestic production, not global dispersion.
Population readiness must be restored with equal seriousness. Schools should reinstate meaningful physical fitness standards that prepare young people for adulthood. Communities should normalize service as a civic expectation. A national voluntary service pathway that includes military, civil, conservation, and emergency response roles would strengthen identity and purpose. The country needs a coordinated strategy to confront synthetic opioids. The Trump administration began this process by pressuring China for precursor controls and sanctioning cartel leadership. The next step is a unified national security strategy across Homeland Security, Defense, Treasury, and Justice that treats fentanyl as a strategic threat, not merely a criminal enterprise.
Mental resilience is equally important. The nation can draw from veteran programs that have proven effective. These programs emphasize early intervention, community support, and peer networks that reconnect individuals to purpose. Their success demonstrates that strengthening mental health is possible when people are linked to responsibility and community rather than isolation.
Civic identity must also be restored. Schools should return to teaching the foundational principles of the republic without ideological distortion. Students should understand how their government works, why the separation of powers protects their freedoms, and how federalism distributes authority. Civic literacy is not political indoctrination. It is the instruction manual for maintaining a constitutional republic.
Trust in institutions must be rebuilt through transparency. Agencies should operate on the assumption that the public has a right to know. Audits should be routine. Declassification should be expected. Oversight should be public. These commitments strengthen institutions by grounding them in legitimacy rather than secrecy.
Finally the nation must revive a culture of seriousness. Distraction has become a national addiction. Outrage substitutes for thought. Entertainment substitutes for purpose. Instant gratification substitutes for discipline. A country cannot meet its obligations if its people are consumed by trivialities. The United States must rediscover the value of restraint, the necessity of sacrifice, and the moral weight of citizenship.
Four pillars are weakening at once. Industrial capacity. National identity. Population readiness. Civic resilience. No advanced nation can afford to lose all four simultaneously. Decline is not inevitable. Collapse is not predetermined. History offers warnings, but it also offers hope. Nations that choose discipline, purpose, and clarity can recover. Nations that delay rarely do.
The window is open, but not indefinitely. The path to renewal is clear. The tools already exist. What remains is the national will to act before the fall becomes the verdict of history.
